Investor Pulse: Optimism for 2024 (2024)

About the Vanguard Investor Expectations Survey

Vanguard’s Investor Research & Insights team has been collecting Vanguard investor expectations for U.S. stock market returns and U.S. GDP growth since February 2017. The survey runs every other month, in February, April, June, August, October, and December. A special survey was conducted in March 2020 during the pandemic-induced market crash.

The survey poses 13 brief questions about U.S. stock market and economic growth expectations to a random sample of 2,000 Vanguard personal and 401(k) investors. It is conducted in partnership with academic researchers Stefano Giglio of the Yale School of Management, Matteo Maggiori of the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, and Johannes Stroebel of the Stern School of Business, New York University.

The survey respondents are a random sample of U.S.-based Vanguard investors invited by email to participate. About 80% of the sample is drawn from our personal investor clients and about 20% from participants in employer-sponsored defined contribution retirement plans. To be included, investors also must have opted in to receive Vanguard statements by email, be over age 21, and have total Vanguard assets of at least $10,000. Overall, this sample group holds about $2 trillion in assets at Vanguard. We receive about 2,000 responses from investors in each period the survey is conducted.

The responses may be of use to advisors, plan sponsors, researchers, and other investors wishing to gauge current sentiment among individual households and calibrate clients’ thoughts compared with the market.

Investor Pulse: Optimism for 2024 (2024)

FAQs

How could investor optimism affect stock prices? ›

It is possible that investors overreact to such news and become excessively optimistic about the company's prospects, pushing its stock price to unnaturally high levels. In the subsequent years, however, investors realize they were unduly optimistic about the business and the stock price will correct itself downwards.

Which gives the highest potential return to an investor? ›

The U.S. stock market has long been considered the source of the greatest returns for investors, outperforming all other types of investments including financial securities, real estate, commodities, and art collectibles over the past century.

What is the expected market return for the next 10 years? ›

Highlights: 5.2% 10-year expected nominal return for U.S. large-cap equities; 9.9% for European equities; 9.1% for emerging-markets equities; 5.0% for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of September 2023). All return assumptions are nominal (non-inflation-adjusted).

Which investor has the highest expectation of returns? ›

Expectation Gap by Country

🇺🇸 U.S. Investors in the U.S. have the highest long-term annual return expectations, at 15.6%. The U.S. also has the highest expectations gap across countries, with investors' expectations more than double that of advisors.

What can investors expect from 2024? ›

Falling inflation and weaker economic activity will allow central banks to cut interest rates from around the middle of 2024. After policy rates recede from their cyclical peaks, we expect them to settle at a higher level than we've seen in the past decade, in both Europe and the US.

What are the investor sentiment for 2024? ›

Investors are brimming with confidence going into 2024,” said Xiao Xu, an analyst in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group. “Their optimism about the stock market has hit its highest level in two years, following the recent surge in U.S. equities.”

Where can I get 10 percent return on investment? ›

Investments That Can Potentially Return 10% or More
  • Stocks.
  • Real Estate.
  • Private Credit.
  • Junk Bonds.
  • Index Funds.
  • Buying a Business.
  • High-End Art or Other Collectables.
Sep 17, 2023

What is the best place to invest money right now? ›

11 best investments right now
  • High-yield savings accounts.
  • Certificates of deposit (CDs)
  • Bonds.
  • Money market funds.
  • Mutual funds.
  • Index Funds.
  • Exchange-traded funds.
  • Stocks.
Mar 19, 2024

What is a good return on investment over 5 years? ›

General ROI: A positive ROI is generally considered good, with a normal ROI of 5-7% often seen as a reasonable expectation. However, a strong general ROI is something greater than 10%. Return on Stocks: On average, a ROI of 7% after inflation is often considered good, based on the historical returns of the market.

Should I invest in stocks or bonds 2024? ›

Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024. Easing inflation and a pivoting Fed should reduce headwinds that have faced both asset classes in recent years. Resilient growth may prove to be an additional tailwind for stocks.

What is the value investing outlook for 2024? ›

The markets whipsawed in the fourth quarter, as the Fed signaled rate cuts in the second half of 2024; we expect an environment of modest rate cuts by the end of 2024, targeting real interest rates at levels around 0.5% for short-term maturities to upwards of 2.0% for 20- and 30-year bonds.

What does Morningstar predict for 2024? ›

While Morningstar economists expect real GDP growth to slow in 2024, our longer-term outlook is optimistic. Our researchers predict the U.S. economy will feel the lagged effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Consumers also seem cautious as household excess savings deplete.

Who is the number 1 investor in America? ›

Warren Buffett is often considered the world's best investor of modern times.

What is Buffett buying? ›

Which stocks is Warren Buffett buying?
Company name & symbolPercent change in share count over quarterValue of investment at end of quarter
Sirius XM (SIRI)316%$220,129,000
Chevron Corp. (CVX)14%$18,808,080,000
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)9%$14,552,270,000
Mar 4, 2024

What is Warren Buffett investing in? ›

Buffett Watch
SymbolPct of portfolio
Apple IncAAPL41.5%
Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc Series CBATRK0.0%
Bank of America CorpBAC10.4%
BYD Co. LtdBYDDF0.6%
46 more rows

How does investor sentiment affect stock market? ›

Since institutional investors play their role as 'noise traders' in the stock market, their sentiment is viewed as a major sentiment proxy (DeVault et al., 2019; Schmeling, 2007). Furthermore, Duxbury and Wang (2023) posit that retail as well as institutional investors cause inefficiency in the stock market.

How does investor confidence affect the stock market? ›

Investor sentiment or confidence can cause the market to go up or down, which can cause stock prices to rise or fall. The general direction that the stock market takes can affect the value of a stock: bull market – a strong stock market where stock prices are rising and investor confidence is growing.

When investors are optimistic about the economy and buy stocks? ›

Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence, and expectations that strong results should continue for an extended period of time. It is difficult to predict consistently when the trends in the market might change.

How do investor expectations influence stock prices? ›

How do investor expectations influence stock prices? If investors think that the price of a share of stock will go up, they will try to buy shares before others do. However, if everyone tries to buy shares at the same time, share prices will go up because of the overall increase in demand.

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