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- UK rises for first time since December - analysis
- Top five items that have gone up the most revealed
- Wizz launches unlimited flight package for £445 - but there's a catch
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US inflation falls lower than expected
By Daniel Binns, business reporter
Annual inflation in the US fell to 2.9% in July, down from 3%, according to official data released this lunchtime.
The announcement helps pave the way for the US Federal Reserve for cut interest rates next month.
This matters to monetary policy makers in the EU and UK as they don't like to be too misaligned with the US - for fear of impacting currency strength, among other reasons.
The annual consumer prices index (CPI) rate for July was the lowest since March 2021 and came in below market expectations.
In the immediate aftermath of the publication of the latest figures, financial markets upped their expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, pricing in the likelihood of such an outcome at 60.5%.
The likelihood of a bigger 0.5 percentage point cut was judged to be 39.5%.
Earlier in the day, the likelihood of a 0.25 or 0.5 percentage point cut had been almost 50-50.
Inflation increase: UK is returning to period of normal fluctuation
The first increase in inflation this year is less a reason for panic than a signal that, after almost three years of wild volatility, the UK's measure of price increases is returning to a period of what looks far more normal fluctuation.
The primary reason CPI stepped up to 2.2% in the year to July is statistical, the base effect of energy prices falling less this year than they did in July 2023. A year ago the Ofgem retail price cap fell by more than £1,100, 10 times more than the £110 reduction last month. That means that while energy prices are lower than they were, annual inflation increased.
The Bank of England had forecast this move upwards from its target rate of 2% and used it to justify its cautious tone around interest rates, even as they were cut earlier this month for the first time since the hiking cycle began.
Below the headline rate of CPI were numbers that will give the Bank some confidence that it can afford to cut rates further by the end of the year.
Core inflation, a measure that removes volatile food and energy prices and indicates the underlying "secondary" effects of inflation, fell slightly from 3.5% to 3.2%.
Goods inflation remains in negative territory at minus 0.6%, but that was an increase from minus 1.4% the previous month, driven in part by food inflation, which increased to 1.8% after 15 consecutive monthly falls.
Inflation in services, which make up the majority of the British economy, fell to 5.2%. Coming a day after wage inflation also eased, that fuelled expectations that further rate cuts are coming, though not necessarily at the next Bank of England meeting in September.
Market expectations of a cut in September rose to 45%, meaning a narrow majority expect rates to be held at 5%, with the prospects of further cuts before the year-end priced at 90% in November and 97% in December.
TV chef picks best cheap eats in London
Every Wednesday we ask top chefs to pick their favourite Cheap Eats where they live and when they cook at home.This week we speak to TV chef Judy Joo, who co-owns the popular Seoul Bird in London.
Hi Judy,can you tell us your favourite places in London where you can get a meal for two for less than £40?
Since 1900,Paul Rothe & Sonin Marylebone has been crafting some of the best sandwiches in London. Lucky for me, I live just around the corner from this charming, historic deli.
My go-to is their famous pastrami and cheese, piled high with pickle, mayo, and mustard. Occasionally, I'll switch things up with their epic coronation chicken, or if I'm feeling adventurous, a jacket potato with tuna and sweetcorn. It's quintessentially British, and I love it.
Trejo's Tacos has crossed the pond, opening its first international outpost in Notting Hill. Founded by actor Danny Trejo, this canteen boasts a cult following in Los Angeles (myself included) and has quickly become my favourite spot for tacos in London.
My usual order includes a plate of Baja fish and spicy shrimp tacos, dosed in their house hot sauce and perfectly complemented by one of their stellar OG margaritas or homemade horchata. I also love their house-made guacamole and salsa served with their truly addictive freshly fried corn tortilla chips. I just munch away while thinking of the southern California sun.
I live near Edgware Road, an area renowned for its vibrant Middle Eastern community and fantastic cuisine. Maroush, a London institution with multiple venues across the city, remains a favourite, especially the original one on Edgware Road.
The chicken or lamb shawarma is the star dish, slow-cooked on vertical rotisseries, infused with aromatic spices, and expertly sliced off with sabers. It's the perfect late-night snack after a few too many pints. I love their tomato okra stew with rice - so comforting and warming.
Tucked away in the basem*nt of an unassuming British pub down a quaint mews street in Marylebone is Liu Xiaomian.
I usually order the minced pork xiaomian - toothsome wheat noodles swimming in a red chilli broth, then dressed with seasoned pork and fragrant spring onions. The numbing pork wontons are another standout, delivering what their name promises in true mala style. Don't miss the cucumber side salad which offers a refreshing respite for your palate.
What is your go-to cheap eat to cook at home when you have a night in?
My go-to budget-friendly meal for cooking at home is pimped-out instant ramen noodles.
If I am feeling spicy, I'll grab a pack of Shin Ramen and add fresh veggies and leftover proteins from the fridge.
Spinach, mushrooms, corn, spring onions, leftover roasted chicken, and some frozen dumplings usually make their way into the pot. Absolutely anything goes!
And, to finish, I'll crack an egg in and let it cook on top of the noodles just until the yolk is set, but still gooey. It's a quick, delicious meal that hits the spot every time.
We've spoken to lots of top chefs - check out their cheap eats from around the country here...
Top five items that have gone up the most revealed
By Sky News Data and Forensics Unit
As we've discussed throughout the morning, the rate of inflation grew to 2.2% in July - the first time since December last year that it has increased.
Which shop prices are increasing fastest?
Olive oil costs nearly two fifths more than it did last year, with prices for 500ml-1 litre rising from £6.39 to £8.83 in just 12 months.
The Money blog looked at the reasons why here...
Plums, meanwhile, are up by a quarter, from £3.08 per kilo to £3.57.
Food and drink products are responsible for seven of the 10 highest increases since last year.
For fans of a slicked-back hairstyle, non-food items like hair gel increased by a third, and for any pet owners, the price of a small mammal cage nearly hopped up by a fifth.
Top five price rises:
- Olive oil (500ml-1litre): up 38%, £6.39 to £8.83
- Hair gel (150-200ml): up 33%, £3.08 to £4.10
- Plums (per kg): up 25%, £2.85 to £3.57
- White potatoes (per kg): up 20%, 74p to 89p
- Cauliflower (each): up 20%, £1.07 to £1.28
Fifty-six of the 156 types of food and drink tracked by the ONS have actually become cheaper since last year. Many of these were store cupboard staples like pulses, dried pasta, and canned tomatoes.
Top food price decreases:
- Pulses (390-420g): down 13%, 77p to 67p
- Frozen prawns (per kg): down 8%, £18.77 to £17.24
- Cheddar cheese (per kg): down 8%, £9.49 to £8.77
- Spreadable butter (500g): down 7%, £4.18 to £3.90
- Frozen berries (per pack): down 6%, £2.53 to £2.37
Of non-supermarket items, electric heaters have been some of the biggest price fallers - by 22%.
How much has your individual spending changed in the last year?
Use our calculator to see how much prices are rising on the groceries, clothing and leisure activities you pay for...
Rents still soaring - as house prices climb
We've had some more ONS data this morning - this time on house and rent inflation.
While the figures are largely unchanged from a month ago, the rental stats in particular are worth outlining as they illustrate the difficulties still facing renters.
Official data shows:
- Average UK private rents increased by 8.6% in the 12 months to July 2024, unchanged from in the 12 months to June 2024;
- Average rents increased to £1,319 (8.6%) in England, £748 (7.9%) in Wales, and £965 (8.2%) in Scotland;
- In Northern Ireland, average rents increased by 10% in the 12 months to May 2024;
- In England, rents inflation was highest in London (9.7%) and lowest in the North East (6.1%).
On the housing market, we learned:
- Average UK house prices increased by 2.7%, to £288,000, in the 12 months to June 2024 - unchanged from a month before;
- Average house prices increased in England to £305,000 (2.4%), in Wales to £216,000 (1.8%), and in Scotland to £192,000 (4.3%).
Markets up after inflation data - but pound falls
By Sarah Taaffe-Maguire, business reporter
News of an increased rate of price rises was welcomed by UK markets but it hit the pound.
While inflation has increased, the fact the figure came in lower than expected could be a boost to the mainly UK-based companies that make up the FTSE 250, which rose 0.47% on the news, as did the 100 most valuable companies on the exchange, the FTSE 100.
The pound, however, fell from its highest since late July and now £1 buys $1.2838 and €1.1659.
Energy costs remain elevated with the benchmark oil price $81 for a barrel of Brent crude oil.
Gas prices are still below the 100p a therm (the measurement for heat) high seen on Monday evening but not by a whole lot at 96.65p a therm.
The biggest riser of FTSE 250 companies was gambling tech company Playtech.
Following Sky News reporting that gambling giant Flutter is in talks to buy the consumer arm of Playtech for £2bn, its share price shot up 13.57%.
Budget airline launches unlimited flight package for £445 a year - but there's a catch
Wizz Air has launched Europe's first unlimited flight package - but there are a few things you should know before signing up.
The All You Can Fly membership costs £534 for 12 months, and is currently on sale until tomorrow for £445.
Subscribers can use the deal to travel to more than 800 destinations as many times as they like over the course of a year, starting from 25 September.
Here's the catch - customers must book the flights within 72-hours of them taking off.
Each flight also comes with a £9 booking fee, which must be paid in addition to the membership.
And, the costs of booking a seat and adding luggage is also not included.
On the Wizz Air website, a "seat protection fee" ranges from €80 (£68.31) to €100 (£85.39), and adding a bag costs between €11 (£9.39) and €120.50 (£102.89).
It's also important to note that there are only 10,000 memberships available.
Wizz Air's commercial officer Silvia Mosquera said: "We are thrilled to be the first to introduce this one-of-a-kind membership for travellers in Europe.
"The Wizz All You Can Fly membership will give customers hundreds of spontaneous travel options for a fixed price, giving them freedom to fly whenever is convenient without paying extra."
You can read all the terms and conditions of the All You Can Fly package here.
Scroll down to read all the reaction to inflation rising - as we start incorporating other money news into the blog
We'll continue to bring you fallout from this morning's inflation data - while also focusing on other money news now.
A little later on today we'll have this week's Cheap Eats - with a TV chef picking her favourites at home and in London.
Inflation rate could keep ticking up, economist says
An uptick in inflation was always expected and there could be further increases ahead, an economist has said.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, told Sky News the "good news" is core inflation - a key measure monitored by the Bank of England - is coming down.
"But what we do have is energy prices making that headline inflation slightly jumpier, because we had falls in energy prices last year and this year they [will be] going up a little bit again.
"So overall it's upward pressure again on inflation from energy prices."
The "main worry" is whether an uptick in inflation - which could reach 3% later this year - would "feed into stronger wage growth", causing further concern for the BoE, she added.