Nifty 50 to approach 23,400 by June 2024 as seasonal correction matures, says ICICI Direct (2024)

Nifty 50, which represents the country’s top 50 blue-chip companies across various sectors, has been consolidating in the 1000-point range since mid-January. This period of consolidation served as a cooling-off phase, taming the previously overbought readings.

However, amidst this apparent lull, numerous indicators suggest a potential surge on the horizon, painting a picture of optimism for investors. The year 2024, being a general election year, is anticipated to heavily influence sentiments in the equity markets. The benchmark indices have performed well in election years despite spikes in volatility, said domestic brokerage firm ICICI Direct Research.

Also Read: Nifty 50, midcaps, Sensex hit record highs: 5 reasons behind market rally

Rhythm to continue

Historically, during general election years, the Nifty has exhibited a notable pattern. It has a tendency to bottom out in first quarter, followed by a minimum 14% rally towards the general election outcome in each of seven instances over the past three decades.

As the index has already seen a 5% correction in January (usual bull market correction) followed by two months of correction, the brokerage expects the index to maintain the same rhythm and head towards 23,400 level by June 2024, driven by BFSI, auto, capital goods, and metal.

"We reiterate our constructive stance and expect Nifty to head for target of 23,400 by Election outcome," said ICICI Direct.

Further bolstering this optimistic outlook are indicators signaling potential bottom formation. The percentage of stocks above the 50-day EMA (20%) along with the net of the daily advance decline (-460) has approached bearish extreme readings, which usually coincide with the bottom formation, the brokerage noted.

According to the brokerage, as per a four-decade analysis, median returns in an election year have been 17%, thus, it expects the Nifty 50 to touch 24,800 levels by CY24 end. Conversely, the brokerage identifies the support level for the Nifty 50 at 21,700.

Also Read: NSE introduces 4 new indices in capital market and F&O segment from April 8

Attractive risk-reward proposition

The mid-cap index has undergone a correction of 9% from its all-time high. Given that bull market corrections over the past decade have averaged around 12%, this correction presents an attractive risk-reward proposition for investors seeking to add quality stocks to their portfolios.

A bottom-up chart study of Nifty constituents paints a similar picture of optimism, with many stocks approaching key support levels after undergoing healthy retracements. This sets the stage for a potential resurgence, as these stocks are expected to resume their structural uptrend, driving the broader market higher across multiple sectors, it highlighted.

Also Read: Nifty 50 April series outlook: 4 stocks where investors can park their money

Large-cap stocks to outperform

The brokerage highlights that large-cap stocks are poised to outperform the broader market. It indicates that the Nifty/Nifty 500 is rebounding from a crucial reversal zone. Over two decades, the ratio bottomed out at 1 on both occasions, followed by largecaps outperforming in subsequent quarters.

Also Read: Market Outlook: 6 key sectors investors should watch out for in 2024

Furthermore, it added that the global equity market conditions are robust and indicate support for a further rally over the coming quarters, given the direct correlation of domestic markets with their global counterparts.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Published: 04 Apr 2024, 03:39 PM IST

Nifty 50 to approach 23,400 by June 2024 as seasonal correction matures, says ICICI Direct (2024)

FAQs

Nifty 50 to approach 23,400 by June 2024 as seasonal correction matures, says ICICI Direct? ›

Nifty 50 is expected to rally towards 23,400 by June 2024 driven by BFSI, auto, capital goods, and metal sectors. Midcaps' correction offers attractive risk-reward opportunity for investors seeking quality stocks, as per ICICI Direct.

Is Bank Nifty positive or negative? ›

NIFTY Prediction

NIFTY (22,327) Nifty is currently in positive trend. If you are holding long positions then continue to hold with daily closing stoploss of 22,094 Fresh short positions can be initiated if Nifty closes below 22,094 levels.

Is tomorrow Bank Nifty bullish or bearish? ›

Bank Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow (10th April 2024)
Bank Nifty ViewLevels
Bank Nifty Support48400-48200
Bank Nifty Resistance49000-49300
Bank Nifty Range48400-49300
BiasSideways to Bullish
3 days ago

How do you know if Nifty 50 will increase or decrease? ›

Wondering, 'How to judge bank nifty movement?'

Monitoring changes in option prices and open interest is essential for identifying shifts in sentiment. For instance, a simultaneous rise in the Bank Nifty future price and open interest signifies bullish sentiment, hinting at potential market optimism.

What is the lot size of Nifty 50 options? ›

Lot sizes of Nifty Financial Services or FINNIFTY has been cut from 40 to 25, and that of Nifty Midcap Select or MIDCPNIFTY has been cut from 75 to 50. The lot size of contracts of Nifty Bank or BANKNIFTY has been left unchanged at 15.

How to predict nifty 50 movement? ›

If the prices are moving upward with higher highs and higher lows, Nifty 50 will be on an uptrend. If it's moving downwards with lower highs and lower lows, Nifty 50 will experience a downtrend. If the price is constantly moving up and down, they are in a sideways trend.

What is the nifty prediction for the next 10 years? ›

In an interaction with Business Today TV, the veteran market watcher said the benchmark equity index NSE Nifty could reach the 50,000 mark by 2030-31 and 75,000 mark in the next 10 years, citing a broad-based recovery in the economy which is happening right now.

Which stocks to buy tomorrow in India? ›

BTST Stocks for the Day
STOCKACTIONCMP
United Spirits Ltd.BUY1194
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd.BUY480
Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Ltd.BUY1024

What is the best indicator for Bank Nifty? ›

Bollinger Bands : This is among the Best Technical Indicators for Bank Nifty options analysis, used for the majority of underlying assets in India. In this indicator, two lines are plotted, each two standard deviation away from the 20-day simple moving average.

What is the most accurate stock predictor? ›

AltIndex – We found that AltIndex is the most accurate stock predictor for 2024. Unlike other providers in this space, AltIndex relies on alternative data points, such as social media sentiment and website analytics. It also uses artificial intelligence to convert its findings into risk-averse stock picks.

What is the prediction of NIFTY 50 in 2025? ›

According to experts, our one-year forward objective for the Nifty 50, which is set for March 2025, is 24,800. This represents a 10% upside against the long-term predicted returns of around 14%.

Which stocks affect NIFTY 50? ›

Weightage
  • Reliance Industries Limited. Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels. ...
  • HDFC Bank Limited. Financial Services. ...
  • ICICI Bank Limited. Financial Services. ...
  • Infosys Limited. Information Technology. ...
  • Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited. Financial Services. ...
  • Tata Consultancy Services Limited. ...
  • ITC Limited. ...
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited.

Which NIFTY 50 stock is best? ›

Multibagger stocks in the Nifty 50 index
  • Tata Motors. + Trade. 1,012.955.90 (0.59%) Updated - 08 Apr 2024. ...
  • Bajaj Auto. + Trade. 9,005.8528.20 (0.31%) Updated - 10 Apr 2024. ...
  • Coal India. + Trade. 456.0516.30 (3.71%) ...
  • NTPC. + Trade. 362.75-0.65 (-0.18%) ...
  • Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone. + Trade. 1,352.50-3.65 (-0.27%)
1 day ago

Can I buy 10000 lots in Nifty? ›

With Iceberg orders, an order to buy 10000 or 200 lots of Nifty or more can be placed at the same time. This will not only mean not having to place multiple orders in case of a large order but also help reduce impact costs.

How much money is required to sell options? ›

You don't need a considerable sum of money to become an options trader. You can start small with a capital of less than Rs 2 lakhs too. However, as you start small, you need to be a careful trader so that you can cut down on the possibility of losses and enhance the return potential of your trades.

Which stock has lowest price? ›

low price shares
S.No.NameDiv Yld %
1.Autoriders Intl.0.73
2.Signet Industrie0.72
3.Samkrg Pistons1.48
4.Amarjothi Spg.1.17
23 more rows

What does bank Nifty indicates? ›

Nifty Bank, or Bank Nifty, is an index comprised of the most liquid and large capitalised Indian banking stocks. It provides investors with a benchmark that captures the capital market performance of Indian bank stocks.

What happens in bank Nifty? ›

The Bank Nifty is used as a benchmark for investors and mutual fund managers to gauge how banking stocks will perform in general and whether certain funds are likely to make gains. It is also used as an underlying asset for derivatives trading such as futures and options contracts.

Which is good Nifty or bank Nifty? ›

Meanwhile, in the long term, Nifty Bank has given better returns between the two. The bank index has rallied over 42 percent in the last 3 years while Nifty IT is up 36 percent and Nifty has gained over 48 percent.

Why bank Nifty is so important? ›

It is a widely followed and influential index, as the banking sector plays a crucial role in the Indian economy. The Nifty Bank index is used by investors, traders, and analysts to assess the health and trends of the banking sector, make investment decisions, and manage portfolios.

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