What commodities go up during inflation?
Commodities such as precious metals, agriculture goods, and oil & gas have often been touted as a portfolio diversifier that serves as a hedge against inflation.
And although this may sound like the most basic advice from Investing 101, when it comes to inflation, it's how you diversify that counts. For example, you can look to invest in a variety of commodities that have performed well during previous cycles of inflation – think oil, gold, lumber, metals and agriculture.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, commodities make up close to 40% of the Consumer Price Index, the most commonly watched inflation measure. When inflation began to surge in 2021 and 2022, higher commodity prices, such as for food and gasoline, played a big role.
Precious metals, like gold or silver, tend to perform well during market slowdowns. But since the demand for these kinds of commodities often increases during recessions, their prices usually go up too. You can invest in precious metals in a few different ways.
Three of the most commonly traded commodities include oil, gold, and base metals.
Precious metals
High inflation, interest rates and geopolitical risk have pushed up demand for gold as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.
Commodity ETF | Expense ratio |
---|---|
Invesco Electric Vehicle Metals Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (EVMT) | 0.59% |
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) | 0.4% |
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) | 0.51% |
Global X Uranium ETF (URA) | 0.69% |
1. Gold. Gold has often been considered a hedge against inflation.
Least volatile markets
All markets experience volatility to some degree, but the markets with fewer price swings are bonds, T-bills and cash in savings. Safe havens, like gold and silver, are often regarded as hedges against market instability, but as commodities they can also experience price swings.
Typically, energies are the most volatile commodities, while agriculturals tend to experience less dramatic price swings.
What not to buy during a recession?
During an economic downturn, it's crucial to control your spending. Try to avoid taking on new debt you don't need, like a house or car. Look critically at smaller expenses, too — there's no reason to keep paying for things you don't use.
Most stocks and high-yield bonds tend to lose value in a recession, while lower-risk assets—such as gold and U.S. Treasuries—tend to appreciate.
During challenging financial times, cash and liquidity is king. Having easy access to cash during a recession can help you avoid going into serious debt.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is the commodity with the highest trading volume. It is used for the extraction of petrol, diesel, and petrochemicals. Brent oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are the two most traded types of crude oil.
Crude oil ranks as one of the most traded commodities in the world. Commodity traders who had taken long positions on crude oil last year made a lot of money. Crude oil prices decreased in 2020 as a result of COVID-19 and the consequent global lockdowns.
The most traded commodity is crude oil. Crude oil is used in many products, from petrochemicals to petroleum to lubricants to diesel.
A GlobalData poll found that gold, lithium, and copper are among the commodities set to see the greatest price increases in 2024. The lower price of lithium has been attributed to weaker-than-expected demand for EVs.
However, the risks associated with commodity investments are substantial. Uncontrollable factors such as inflation, weather, political unrest, foreign events, new technologies and even rumors can have devastating consequences to the price of a commodity.
Firstly, the commodity is vulnerable to devaluation as the commodity itself perishes. Next, because quality can not be guaranteed between one sample and another, some commodity money may have lower quality than others. Finally, because some commodities take time to grow or multiply, these economies may grow slower.
Commodities stand to benefit from underinvestment and the clean energy transition. PIMCO has a positive outlook for commodities based on supply constraints, the transition to a net-zero economy, and their historical correlation with inflation.
What is the easiest way to invest in commodities?
As an investment, commodities come in many forms. Some can be as complex as direct ownership of physical commodities or as easy as purchasing a mutual fund that focuses on commodities. Physical ownership. This is the most basic way to invest in commodities.
Warren Buffett is often considered the world's best investor of modern times. Buffett started investing at a young age, and was influenced by Benjamin Graham's value investing philosophy.
- Gold. Gold tends to hold its value even during inflation. ...
- Real estate. ...
- Commodities. ...
- Floating-rate bonds. ...
- Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) ...
- Cash. ...
- Cryptocurrency.
Investing in farmland as an inflation hedge
There's one more big reason that farmland is an especially compelling investment right now: inflation. Unlike mainstream financial assets, which tend to lose value when consumer prices go up, the value of farmland actually tends to rise when prices rise.
- Move Your Money into a High-Yield Savings Account. If you have your money stashed in a checking or basic savings account—or worse, at home—inflation erodes the value over time. ...
- Buy Treasury Bonds. ...
- Invest in the Stock Market. ...
- Diversify Your Portfolio. ...
- Explore Alternative Investments.