What stocks do best in a recession?
Historically, the industries considered to be the most defensive and better placed to fare reasonably during recessions are utilities, health care, and consumer staples.
The best recession stocks include consumer staples, utilities and healthcare companies, all of which produce goods and services that consumers can't do without, no matter how bad the economy gets.
Investors seeking stability in a recession often turn to investment-grade bonds. These are debt securities issued by financially strong corporations or government entities. They offer regular interest payments and a smaller risk of default, relative to bonds with lower ratings.
When the economy falls into a recession, stock market returns usually plummet into the red. For example, in the 2008 recession, S&P 500 returns for the year were 38.5%. However, the stock market doesn't always follow this pattern. In the 2020 recession, S&P 500 returns for the year were 16.3%.
Recession-proof businesses typically have at least one of the following characteristics: Sells essential or mandatory goods, like food, diapers, or hardware supplies. Offers necessary public services, like shipping or toll-road servicing. Provides crucial repairs, like plumbing or electrical repairs.
Company | Symbol | Average % stock ch. last five recessions |
---|---|---|
Boeing | (BA) | -33.4 |
Baker Hughes | (BKR) | -31.2 |
Schlumberger | (SLB) | -30.8 |
American Electric Power | (AEP) | -13.5 |
Most stocks and high-yield bonds tend to lose value in a recession, while lower-risk assets—such as gold and U.S. Treasuries—tend to appreciate.
- Protect your existing income. The first and most important step to making money in a recession is protecting your current income. ...
- Pick up side gigs. ...
- Trim your expenses. ...
- Save that surplus. ...
- Invest some surplus. ...
- Get into real estate. ...
- Sell unused things. ...
- Start your own business.
Some popular methods include starting a business, investing in stocks or mutual funds, or working from home. Starting a business can be a great way to make money in a recession, as long as you have a good idea and the ability to execute it well.
- Stock funds. A stock fund, either an ETF or a mutual fund, is a great way to invest during a recession. ...
- Dividend stocks. ...
- Real estate. ...
- High-yield savings account. ...
- Bonds. ...
- Highly indebted companies. ...
- High-risk assets such as options.
Should I cash out my stocks in a recession?
Bonds and cash have historically outperformed most stocks during recessions. Selling stocks in favor of bonds and cash before a recession may leave you unprepared if stocks bounce back before the economy does, which has happened historically during many recessions.
Cash. Cash is an important asset when it comes to a recession. After all, if you do end up in a situation where you need to pull from your assets, it helps to have a dedicated emergency fund to fall back on, especially if you experience a layoff.
Where to put money during a recession. Putting money in savings accounts, money market accounts, and CDs keeps your money safe in an FDIC-insured bank account (or NCUA-insured credit union account). Alternatively, invest in the stock market with a broker.
Lower prices — A recession often hits after a long period of sky-high consumer prices. At the onset of a recession, these prices suddenly drop, balancing out previous long inflationary costs. As a result, people on fixed incomes can benefit from new, lower prices, including real estate sales.
Toothpaste, deodorant, shampoo, toilet paper, and other grooming and personal care items are always in demand. Offering these types of items can position your business as a vital resource for consumers during tough times. People want to look good, even when times are tough.
The winners in all recessions are the people who keep their jobs and hours, can work at home, and those with excess cash and wealth to snap up what owners needing cash sell: lower-priced small business, lower-priced stocks and bonds, and perhaps even a lower-priced house or two.
During the 11 recessions the US has endured since 1950, stocks have historically fallen an average 15% a year. This history may suggest that selling stocks before a recession arrives and buying them after it departs would be a smart strategy.
Industries affected most include retail, restaurants, travel/tourism, leisure/hospitality, service purveyors, real estate, & manufacturing/warehouse. Despite the severity of any past downturn, markets have always recovered, and in many cases, they have seen a monster rebound.
- Cyclical stocks. Cyclical stocks are virtually the definition of stocks that get hit hard going into a recession, as investors anticipate a peaking economy and begin to sell them. ...
- Small-cap stocks. ...
- Growth stocks. ...
- Real estate. ...
- Consumer staples. ...
- Utilities. ...
- Bonds.
Luckily, there are some stocks that are more resilient to the negative effects of a downturn. Three stocks that outperformed the S&P 500 during the 2007-09 Great Recession were Gilead Sciences (GILD 1.02%), McDonald's (MCD 0.55%), and Walmart (WMT 1.25%).
What are the safest assets during a recession?
- Federal Bond Funds. Several types of bond funds are particularly popular with risk-averse investors. ...
- Municipal Bond Funds. Next on the list are municipal bond funds. ...
- Taxable Corporate Funds. ...
- Money Market Funds. ...
- Dividend Funds. ...
- Utilities Mutual Funds. ...
- Large-Cap Funds. ...
- Hedge and Other Funds.
The phrase means that having liquid funds available can be vital because of the flexibility it provides during a crisis. While cash investments -- such as a money market fund, savings account, or bank CD -- don't often yield much, having cash on hand can be invaluable in times of financial uncertainty.
So, central bankers can make money more or less expensive, but whichever way they pull the lever, it tends to favour the rich. The diamond-encrusted cherry on this deeply unpalatable cake is that not only do the rich get richer in recessions: in doing so, they actually make recessions worse for everyone else.
While people with higher incomes have an easier path to becoming a recession millionaire, Kim says even investing a little money can go a long way, because younger investors have "more time" to see their returns grow over time.
The most important part of building wealth during a recession is investing as much as possible in the stock market. Take steps to ensure you'll have stable income, like starting a side hustle or working on your skills.